Earlier this season I predicted that OB would go all the way an win the Danish Superliga and that attacker Peter Utaka would be crowned league topscorer but much has changed since with OB struggling to score goals and AaB having found their organisation and having put themselves in contention for the 3rd position.

Aab
League position: 5th on 40 points
Ruled out: Kjetil Wæhler, Jeppe Curth, Daniel Fredheim Holm, Daniel Christensen and Marcus Tracy,
Home game record: 6-3-3

Aab hasn’t lost in their last 6 games and coach Magnus Persson is confident that his team can snatch a win against OB but also realises that it is a tough opponent despite OB’s recent collapse in form. Aab are coming straight from a 2-0 away win at AGF and it seems like they are finding their winning ways again, mainly from a strong defensive organisation. Their last 5 games has resulted in less than 2.5 goals. They have a long injury list at the moment where especially striker Jeppe Curth and substitute strikers, Daniel Friedheim Holm and Marcus Tracy are missed. This has left them with limited offensive fireworks and to a large extent they are relying on the likes of Andreas Johansson and winger Anders Due. Their 2 goals this weekend came at free/corner kicks and this resembles the approach that Aab are taking to the games at the moment – a controlled defence with focus on ball possession and not taking any chances. Returning for this game will be offensive back Kasper Bogelund which could prove a slight improvement of the offense but with limited quality in front of goal to put the ball over the line, I do not see him making a huge offensive impact on the result. Aab’s overall goal score this season is 31-21 in 26 games, giving an average of 2 goals per game.

OB
League position: 2nd on 47 points
Ruled out: Njogu Demba-Nyrén (suspended), Eric Djemba-Djemba (longterm) and Anders K. Jacobsen
Away game record: 6-4-2

The 2nd half of the season is developing into a nightmare for OB. Early they lost Eric Djemba-Djemba to an injury and with him being sidelined they haven’t been able to put together a collective effort this 2nd part of the season. As a former Manchester United player, Djemba-Djemba has flourished in his time at OB and is by far their most important player so loosing him at such a crucial stage has been heartbreaking. He may return at the end of the season but the chances are that they will no longer be in contention by then unless they pick up their game. OB seem somewhat frustrated at the moment, not being able to create the wide open chances they were capable of before the break. Peter Utaka has only shined on occasions and this has not been enough to keep them in the title race having lost 3 of their last 4 games. Their last 3 games have resulted in less than 2.5 goals. Overall their goal score is 37-26 in 26 games resulting in an average of 2.4 goals per game.

Conclusion
There is no doubt that OB is still a high quality team, capable of beating any team in the league on the right day. However nothing in their recent outings is pointing in that direction and with Aab’s strong defence I predict a close low scoring game that will be decided on standard situations such as a corner or free kick. OB can not afford any more blunders but on the other hand are struggling to score. This compared to Aab’s strong organisation and their offensive injury problems, leads me to recommend betting on less than 2.5 goals.