New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January24th --- Lucas Oilfield Stadium, Indianapolis, IN --- 3:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Indianapolis Colts -7½ (39)

New York Jets +7½ +290 Over 39
Indianapolis Colts -7½ -350 Under 39

The AFC Conference Finals features the Indianapolis Colts (15-2 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) hosting the New York Jets (11-7 SU and ATS).

The BetUS.com bookmakers have the Colts as the 7½-point favorites with a posted game total of 39 points. If believe the Jets have another big upset in them, a straight up wager will pay you +290 on the moneyline.

The Colts were expected to go this far but the New York Jets are another story. New York earned the fifth seed on the final day of the regular season. Once in the playoffs, Rex Ryan’s team have knocked off two division winners, defeating the AFC North winners Cincinnati 24-14 and the AFC West’s San Diego Chargers 17-14. In both games, it has been the Jets ability to shut down the opposing offenses limiting each to 14 points.

Holding the Peyton Manning and the Colts to 14 points would take a miracle for the Jets; Opponents have been able to hold the Colt to 14 points just twice this season. The Jags did it in week 1 and still lost and the Bills did it in week 17 but they were essentially playing the Indianapolis Colts practice squad.

I know I said last week that Derrelle Revis is just one player and wouldn’t be enough to stop the Chargers offense, I was wrong but I will say the same thing this week and I’m pretty sure I’ll be right. Reggie Wayne will most definitely be stuck on Revis Island but Manning still has Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. The Jets blitz will need to be perfect but the Colt’s offensive line will give Manning time to find his other options.

The Jets, primary focus will be holding Peyton Manning in check but focus 1a should be scoring some points. The Colts have a smaller than average defense but they limited opponents to less than 20 points a game, and if we remove the 59 points given up in the two losses, after they had clinched the first seed bye, their average points allowed drops to about 15 a game.

Mark Sanchez has received a solid heaping of praise from the media for his play this season but if we look deeper, Sanchez is likely the weak link that will end the Jets Super Bowl hopes this weekend. Sanchez was limited to 12 completions in each of his first two-playoff games.

It has worked so far but as we’ve seen over the course of the season, the New York Jets don’t do well when Mark Sanchez has to throw, they have lost their past seven games in which Sanchez has more than 19 pass attempts. He will have to throw against the Colts.

After chatting with our friendly neighborhood bookmaker, he said “People getting behind the Colts, we thought the ½ point (on the key number of 7) would scare some bettors away but sharps and the general public are taking the Colts, right now the decision (how much the book wins of loses) isn’t huge but by game time it will be.”

If you want to bet the Colts, I would say take the line now because the action on Sunday could force the bookmakers to move the spread to 8-points or beyond. However, if you like the Jets, wait until close to game time so that you will catch the spread at its highest.

I’m taking the Colts, Manning faced an elite defense last week against Baltimore and still put up enough points to win and cover the spread. This weekend I expect to see much of the same, the Jets will blitz, Manning will read it and make amazing passes.